By Scott Shiels
As we have now turned the page into a new year, expectations are that we will start to see markets recover from a very lacklustre and overly negative fall. However, the reality of the situation is that, for the most part, we grew a very large crop across Canada, especially in the Prairie provinces.
Between a very bearish StatCan report in early December and the surprisingly bearish USDA report in mid-January, the market is now faced with the realization that North America is sitting on a much larger supply than anyone expected this year. With trade tensions ongoing between Canada and the U.S., as well as tariffs from China and India, Canadian producers face a lot of difficult decisions heading into spring planting for the 2026 crop. However, continuing tariff talks between Canada and China are opening some export opportunities over the short term, which may strengthen at least the old crop canola and pea prices available heading into the spring and summer months.
That being said, all the data to date is leading to massive uncertainty when it comes to planting intentions, which also will have some effect on the markets as we head into the summer. As we sit here today, average crop yields with today’s prices and cost of production leave nothing but red ink on the bottom lines of nearly every major crop on the Prairies. What does this mean for seeding plans? Will we see more chem/summerfallow? Or should producers look to plant cover crops or forages to build soil structure and potentially open some of the regenerative programs on that land for the following years? I believe we will see an increase in both practices this year, but also some acre increases in crops like flax and the more specialty crops like canary seed, lentils and chickpeas.
While flax acreage was up significantly last year – with a good yielding and great quality crop – there is still an opportunity for producers to add flax to their rotation, or to increase the acres they are already planting. The market for food-grade flax has continued to increase, with many food companies looking to increase Omega-3 components in their products. The health food industry will not disappear any time soon, and that leaves the door open for products like flax to continue to thrive. Also, there is a very large market in the pet food industry for milled flax and flaxseed oils. This is another sector that continues to grow as the North American population is very passionate about their pets, and high-end pet food is witnessing sustained growth in that market.
Concerns about diminished returns on the major crops such as canola, wheat and barley are not to be dismissed, but looking at options for more diversity in crops like flax and other specialty crops to offset those numbers is more important than ever this year.
Until next time…
